USDCAD Climbs After Canadian GDP Data

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The Canadian dollar has been gaining lately against the US dollar. However, the USDCAD pair reached an important support zone where buyers appeared to hold the downside in the pair. Moments ago, the Canadian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data was released by the Statistics Canada. The forecast is slated for a 0.2% rise in April. However, the outcome was below the expectations, as the Canadian GDP grew 0.1% in April, the same pace as in March. The report mentioned that the output of service industries increased 0.3% in April, led by wholesale and retail trade and output of goods-producing industries fell 0.3%. Moreover, the Wholesale trade rose 1.3% in April. Overall, the data was not that bad, but the market discarded it because the expectation was on the higher side.

USDCAD 06.30..2014

The USDCAD traded higher in an early reaction to the data and broke an important down-move trend line on the 4 hour chart. This trend line was also coinciding with the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.0750 high to 1.0658 low. So, this break can be seen as important, which might encourage the US dollar buyers to take the UADCAD pair higher in the short term.

Currently, the pair is flirting with the 38.2% fib retracement level, and a break above the same might expose a run towards the 50% fib level. The 100 simple moving average on the 4 hour chart also sits around the same fib level. So, sellers might appear around the mentioned fib level.

On the downside, the broken trend line might act as support moving ahead. Any further losses should be limited considering the current price action and could find support around the recent low of 1.0658.

USDJPY Breaks An Important Support Area; Eyes 100.80?

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The US dollar is trading lower against the Japanese yen Intraday despite weak Japanese industrial production data. It is important to note that the USDJPY pair has breached a significant swing support area of 100.50. This break has opened the doors for further downside acceleration towards the previous low of 100.80. Currently, the pair is flirting with the 76.4% fib retracement level of the last move higher from the 100.80 low to 102.78 high. It looks like that the pair might clear the same and trade lower in the coming sessions. If the pair falls, then it would be interesting to see how the US dollar reacts around the 100.80 support level.

USDJPY 06.30..2014

If somehow the pair manages to trade higher from the current levels, then the broken swing support area at 101.50 level might act as a hurdle for the pair. Any further strength might take the pair towards the 200 simple moving average on the 4 hour chart. More gains look difficult considering the current market sentiment, and there is a bearish trend line on the 4 hour chart as a well, which could act as a barrier for the pair on the upside. The mentioned trend line also coincides with the 100 SMA (4H). So, it holds a lot importance in the short to medium term.

The RSI is also around the extreme levels, which means the pair might correct a bit higher from the current levels. However, one cannot deny the fact that the break of the 101.50 level was crucial for the pair.
Japan industrial Production Data

Earlier during the Asian session, the Japan’s industrial production data was published by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The outcome was below the expectations, as the Japan’s industrial production registered a gain of 0.5%, compared to 0.9% expected.

EURGBP Breaks Down; Eyes Previous Lows

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The Euro fell sharply against the British pound during the yesterday’s London session. There was an important trend line on the hourly chart for the EURGBP pair. The Euro sellers managed to break the same trend line, as the pair traded lower. Now, the chance of a re-test of the previous low of 0.7958 has increased, as the pair has also cleared the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg higher from the 0.7958 low to 0.8033 high. One more important thing to note here is that the pair is now trading below both 100 and 200 simple moving averages (1H), which can be considered as a negative sign.

EURGBP 06.27..2014

Currently, the pair is flirting with the 61.8% fib retracement level. If the mentioned fib level gives way for more losses, then it would open the doors for a re-test of the previous low. If the pair manages to gain some bids and trades higher, then it might face resistance in the form of the 100 hourly SMA. More gains are feasible, but the broken trend line support area could now act as a resistance for the pair. So, it would be interesting to see whether the pair can succeed in breaking the mentioned resistance zones or not.

The hourly RSI is below the 50 level, but bouncing from the extreme levels. So, let’s wait and see whether RSI can clear the 50 level or not.

Euro Zone Consumer Sentiment

Later during the next Asian session, the Euro zone’s consumer sentiment will be released by the European Commission. The market is expecting a minor 0.10 point rise in the consumer confidence from -7.10 to -7.00. If the outcome exceeds the expectation, the Euro might trade higher in the near term.

More Losses To Follow For EURJPY?

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The Euro was seen trading lower against the Japanese yen Intraday. The EURJPY pair has breached an important bullish trend line on the hourly chart. The highlighted trend was coinciding with the 100 simple moving average (hourly) and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the last up-move from the 137.70 low to 138.92 high. So, this break was critical, and has opened the doors for further downside acceleration. Currently, the pair is flirting with the 200 SMA (hourly) and struggling to break the same.

EURJPY 06.26..2014

However, this does not deny the fact that the pair might now trade lower in the coming sessions possibly towards the 50% fib retracement level. If sellers gain control then the pair might even challenge the 61.8% fib, followed by the previous low of 137.70. If the pair bounces from the current levels, then the broken trend line might act as a resistance, followed by the 100 hourly SMA. A break and close above the 100 SMA could again establish the bullish trend in the pair, which might take it towards the last high at least.

The hourly RSI is below the 50 level, which can be considered as a negative sign in the short term. If the RSI breaks above the 50 level and settles above, then the chance of a run towards the 138.80 level would increase.

Japan’s CPI and Unemployment Data
Later during the next Asian session, the Tokyo’s and national Consumer price index data will be published by Statistics Bureau. If the outcome stays in line with the expectations or exceeds, then the EURJPY pair could continue trading lower. Moreover, the Japan’s unemployment rate will also be released, which is expected to come at 3.6%.

Buying Dips Favoured in EURUSD

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The Euro finally managed to clear an important range resistance yesterday against the US dollar post disappointing US GDP data. Currently, there is a trend line forming on the hourly timeframe for the EURUSD pair. The pair is consolidating recent gains, and it is possible that the pair might re-test the trend line support zone in the short term. It is important to note that the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg higher from the 1.3582 low to 1.3650 high is around the 1.3617 level. The mentioned fib level also coincides with the trend line support area. So, the pair might gain bids around this area if it trades lower.

EURUSD 06.26..2014

The 100 hourly simple moving average is also moving along the same trend line. So, it won’t be easy for the Euro sellers to take the EURUSD pair below the trend line. If they manage to do so, then a move back to the 200 hourly SMA is possible in the near term. Any further losses could take the pair back towards the 1.3560 swing support area where buyers will be tested again.

On the other hand, if the pair climbs from the current or a bit lower levels, then the recent high of 1.3650 could be tested, followed by the month high at 1.3670. A break above the month’s high might take the pair towards the 1.3700 resistance level.

US Jobless Claims And Personal Spending Data

The US initial jobless claims and personal spending data will be released later during the day. The US jobless claims are expected to fall by 2K. If the data disappoints again like the US GDP, then the US dollar might lose more ground against the Euro in the short term.

GOLD Turns Lower Post Wedge Break

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GOLD traded higher during this past week, as buyers took control to take the prices higher from the $1260 support level. The precious metal traded as high as $1325, and then started consolidating the gains. There was a wedge formed on the hourly timeframe, which was broken earlier during the day. This can be seen as an important break, as this might have halted the rise in GOLD. If sellers take control, then the yellow metal might trade lower in the coming sessions.

Currently, the prices are around the 100 hourly simple moving average, which is holding the downside for now. If GOLD breaks the 100 hourly SMA, then it might open the doors for further downside acceleration towards the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last up-move from the $1258 low to $1325 high where buyers might appear. If they fail to protect the mentioned fib level, then GOLD could fall towards an important confluence support zone of 50% fib level and the 200 hourly SMA at $1292. This level should hold if the bullish trend needs to sustain in the medium term.

GOLD 06.25..2014

On the other hand, if GOLD rises from the current levels, then it might face hurdle around the broken wedge support area, which might act as a resistance now. If buyers manage to clear the same, then it might re-establish the bullish pressure and take the prices back towards the recent high. A break above $1325 would expose the $1340 resistance area in the short term.

The RSI is heading towards the 50 level, and if breaks together with the price above the $1310 level, then more gains are feasible. Overall, the trend is still bullish as long as 200 hourly SMA holds.

A Break Imminent in USDJPY

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The US dollar is closing in for a break against the Japanese yen, as there is an important pattern forming on the hourly timeframe. There is a triangle forming, which might lead the pair lower or higher in the coming sessions. We have the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to be released later during the day by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which might spark a break in the USDJPY pair. Moreover, the US services PMI and durable goods orders data will also be released around the same time to add to the volatility.

USDJPY 06.25..2014

The USDJPY pair has time and again bounced from the triangle support trend line. However, it has only increased the chance of a break lower in the pair. The pair is again trading around the same zone and below both important simple moving averages on the 4 hour timeframe – 100 and 200. This can be considered a negative sign. If the pair breaks the triangle support trend line and moves lower, then it might open the doors for a downside acceleration towards the last low of 101.60. The most important point to note here is that the recent economic data published in the US was impressive, which means catching a falling knife might not be a good idea.

Alternatively, if the pair bounces from the current levels, then it might face resistance around the 200 SMA (4H). Any further strength might take the pair towards the 50% fib level of last recent drop from the 102.16 high, followed by a test of the triangle resistance trend line.

The RSI is below the 50 level, which is not a good sign considering the current market sentiment and technical levels. Overall, a break is certainly on the cards in the short term.

EURGBP Breaks Higher Post Mark Carney’s Remark

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The Euro finally traded higher against the British pound, and cleared an important resistance zone during the speech of the Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney. The most important point to note from his speech was the stress regarding the dependency of the first rate hike and incoming data. He stated that the rate hike would be dependent on data. Moreover, he mentioned that the rise in the interest rates will be gradual. This did not go down well with the British pound buyers, as it lost ground against the Euro and the US dollar.

The EURGBP was the most interesting one, as there was a triangle forming in the hourly timeframe. The pair breached the same and traded higher. This particular break was significant as the up-move in the pair was sharp taking it all the way back to the recent swing high of 0.8024. The pair also managed to clear the 200 and 100 hourly simple moving average. The pair might consolidate the recent gains before moving higher again. Initial support can be seen around the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last run from the 0.7962 low to 0.8024 high. Any further losses should find buyers around the 50% fib level.

EURGBP 06.24..2014

Alternatively, if the pair continues to trade higher from the current levels, then it might challenge the 0.8050 resistance area. More gains above the mentioned level would be largely dependent on the strength of the Euro, as it has been struggling to gain ground in the recent days.

The RSI is also around the extreme levels, which means there might be a pullback soon. However, the triangle break was crucial, and any dips from the current levels could be seen as a nice buying opportunity.

USDCHF Approaching A Critical Short-Term Break

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The US dollar is forming a contracting triangle against the Swiss franc on the 30-minute timeframe. The USDCHF pair is currently flirting with the triangle support area, which is also coinciding with the 100 simple moving average (30M) at 0.8945. So, the mentioned support level holds a lot importance in the short term. However, the pair is also struggling to break the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.8995 high to 0.8912 low. The highlighted triangle is contracting, which means the pair is heading towards a critical break.
Currently, the 30M RSI is above the 50 level, which is a positive sign. However, the market sentiment stiff does not favour more gains in the US dollar, as despite strong US manufacturing PMI and Existing home sales data it was unable to trade higher. Most of the major pairs are trading in a range or forming a breakout pattern like in the case of the USDCHF pair. If the pair breaks lower, then the 0.8920-30 support area might come into play, followed by a test of the previous low.

USDCHF 06.20..2014

If the pairclimbs higher from the current levels, then it might face hurdle around the triangle resistance trend line, which is also coinciding with the 200 SMA (30M). If it manages to clear the triangle to the high side, then a run towards the previous high is possible in the short term.

There are few important risk-events lined up later during the New York session, including the US new home sales data and CB consumer confidence. Both are expected to improve this time, and if that happens, then the US dollar might gain some traction in the coming sessions.

More Losses Ahead For USDCAD?

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The Canadian dollar is trading higher against the US dollar, as improved inflation data tilted the market sentiment in favour of Canadian dollar especially against the US dollar. The USDCAD pair has breached an important bullish trend line support area. Moreover, the pair has closed below the 200-day simple moving average, which can be considered as a negative sign in the medium term. However, an important point to note here is that the pair is currently testing the 50% fib retracement level of the last move higher from the 1.0185 low to 1.1267 high. So, we might see buyers around the mentioned fib level.

USDCAD 06.20..2014

If the USDCAD pair breaks the 50% fib level, then it would open the doors for a downside acceleration towards the 61.8% fib level. Any further losses should be limited considering the dovish stance of the Bank of Canada.

The RSI on the daily chart has reached the 30 level, which is an early-warning sign. The pair might hold the current levels, and retrace some of the recent losses. However, if the pair manages to correct higher from the current levels, then it might face resistance around the broken 200-day SMA. If the pair settles above the same, then strong offers can be seen around the broken trend line support zone, which might act as a resistance now.

There are few economic releases scheduled later during the day in the US, including the US existing home sales data. Let’s see how the data plays out, and whether the pair can continue to hold the 50% fib level or not in the short term.