GBPJPY At Risk Of A Breakdown

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The British pound has managed to find buyers recently against the Japanese yen, as the GBPJPY pair traded higher. However, this has less to do with the British pound strength and more to do with the Japanese yen weakness. There were a few economic releases lined up during the Asian session in the Japan. The data was mostly on the negative side, as the Japan’s unemployment rate rose by 0.1%, and the industrial production data came below expectation. One important thing to keep in mind is that the yen weakness looks overextended and a short tern correction is possible. So, one need to be very careful chasing the yen lower against most major currencies.

There is a monster triangle forming on the hourly chart for the GBPJPY pair. The pair is currently heading towards the triangle resistance area, which is around the 172.45 level. This level also coincides with the 76.4% fib retracement level of the last fall from the 172.68 high to 171.64 low. So, there is a chance that the pair might fail to break the triangle, and move lower again. One the downside, the 200 hourly moving average holds the key in the short term. A break and close below the same followed by a break of the triangle might open the doors for a larger correction moving ahead.

GBPJPY 08.29.2014

On the other hand, if the British pound buyers manage to break the triangle resistance area, then there is a possibility of the pair creating a new high above the 172.68 level. The RSI is well above the 50 mark, which cannot be seen as a bearish sign.

Overall, staying sideways look like a wise option until some more bearish signs emerges on the hourly timeframe.

EURUSD Failed Around A Very Important Level

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The Euro managed to find some bids during the last two days, and made an attempt to break higher against the US dollar. However, the upside was limited, as the EURUSD pair struggled to clear an important resistance zone around the 1.3220 level. The pair is now seen trading lower again. The economic releases were also not on the positive side for the Euro buyers, which might encourage the Euro sellers in the short term. There is an important economic release lined up during the London session today i.e. the Euro zone consumer price index data will be published. The market is expecting it to decline from 0.4% to 0.3%. If the outcome stays in line with the expectation or falls below, then the Euro might continue trading lower in the short term.

EURUSD 08.29.2014

There is a critical bearish trend line on the hourly chart for the EURUSD pair, which was one of the reasons of the recent failure for the pair. Moreover, the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.3292 high to 1.3152 low was also sitting around the mentioned trend line at the same time. So, we can say that the failure to move higher was from a very important technical level. The pair is likely to continue to trading lower in the short term, and if it manages to rise a bit from the current levels, then sellers might take a stand. The hourly RSI is now below the 50 mark, which support the bearish view moving ahead.

If the pair breaks the 100 hourly moving average, then there is a chance of a retest of the 1.3220 resistance area.

Overall, selling rallies looks like a good option in the short term if the pair stays below the 1.3220 level.

Can NZDUSD Continue Trading Higher?

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The New Zealand dollar traded lower during the last couple of weeks against the US dollar, and recently traded as low as 0.8310. However, the NZDUSD pair has somehow managed to gain bids and is trading a touch higher Intraday. There was no economic release in the New Zealand, but the ANZ Business confidence will be released during the next Asian session, which might affect the pair in the short term. Moreover, the New Zealand building consents data will also be released by the Statistics New Zealand.

There was a major bearish trend line on the hourly chart for the NZDUSD pair, which was breached recently. The most important point is that the pair has managed to close above the 100 hourly moving average. Currently, the pair is struggling to break the 200 moving average, which might cause a pullback in the pair. If the pair moves a bit lower from the current levels, then it might find support around the broken trend line and 100 moving average confluence area. In that situation, it is possible that the pair might climb towards the 50% fib retracement level of the last fall from the 0.8514 high to 0.8310 low. There is also a chance that the pair might continue trading higher from the current levels, and challenge the 50% fib level.

NZDUSD 08.28.2014

If the pair fails to move higher, and closes back below the 100 hourly moving average then a run towards the last low of 0.8310 could be on the cards. It would be interesting to see how the pair behaves around the mentioned level if reached.

Overall, buying dips with a small risk might be considered until the pair is trading above the 100 hourly moving average.

USDJPY Forming A Short Term Breakout Pattern

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The US dollar surged higher above the 104.00 level against the Japanese yen recently, and since then the USDJPY pair was seen consolidating in a range. There was no economic release scheduled yesterday, so there was no such reason for the US dollar traders to ignite volatility in the pair. However, the pair is forming a short-term breakout pattern, which is likely to be broken soon. There are a couple of economic releases lined up during today’s NY session, including the US GDP figures and the US pending home sales data. Any of these releases can cause a lot of volatility in the pair and pave way for a move higher or lower in the short term.

USDJPY 08.28.2014

There is a critical flag pattern forming on the hourly chart for the USDJPY pair, which is likely to act as a pivot for the pair. Recently, the pair broke the 100 hourly moving average to test the flag support trend line. The US dollar buyers managed to hold the downside in the pair, but the mentioned break was a critical one. If the pair trades a bit higher from the current levels, then the 100 hourly moving average is likely to act as a resistance in the short term. If buyers fail to defend the flag support area, then a break below the 103.65 level might call for a run towards the 200 hourly moving average. Any further losses in that situation could take the pair towards the 50% fib retracement level of the last move higher from the 102.13 low to 104.27 high.

On the upside, initial resistance can be seen around the flag resistance area, followed by the previous high of 104.27.

Overall, selling with a small risk might be considered with a tight stop above the previous high.

USDCHF Remains Buy On Dips

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The US dollar surged higher recently against the Swiss franc, as the USDCHF pair traded above the 0.9150 level. The economic releases were also on the positive side. The US durable goods orders data and CB consumer confidence were the latest releases. Both the releases impressed the US dollar investors, and registered better than expected readings. The CB consumer confidence registered a reading of 92.4, up from 90.3. This lifted the US dollar across the board. The EURUSD pair also dropped heavily and traded close to the 1.3150 support level.

There is a critical bullish trend line on the hourly chart for the USDCHF pair, which could act as a catalyst for the pair in the short term. The mentioned trend line is moving along with the 100 hourly moving average, so it increases the importance of the trend line. Currently, the pair is heading towards the highlighted trend line, which is just around the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last move higher from the 0.9122 low to 0.9185 high. So, there is a chance that the pair might find buyers around the 0.9160-55 levels. Only a break and close below the 100 moving average might change the trend and increase the chances of a major correction.

USDCHF 08.27.2014

On the upside, initial resistance can be seen around the last high of 0.9185. If the US dollar sellers fail to defend the mentioned level, then a run towards the next hurdle of 0.9200-10 is possible in the short term.

Overall, buying dips looks like a good option if the pair continues to trade above the 100 moving average.

Euro Might Continue Lower Against British Pound

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The Euro after trading as high as 0.8036 level traded lower. The economic data in the Euro zone and the UK were on the disappointing side, but it is the Euro which has declined heavily in the recent days. The EURGBP pair broke an important support around the 0.7970 this week, which has opened the door for further downside acceleration. There is an important release during the London session i.e. the German GFK consumer climate data will be released. This release might impact the Euro in the short term.

There was a major bullish trend line on the 4 hour chart for the EURGBP pair, which was broken during this week. Moreover, the pair has also breached the 100 moving average (4H), which might encourage the Euro sellers in the short term. The EURGBP pair is currently testing an important confluence support area. The 200 moving average (4H), and the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg higher from the 0.7875 low to 0.8036 high sits around the 0.7955 level. There is a chance that the pair might bounce a bit from the current levels, but if that happens, then it might find resistance around the broken trend line. If the Euro sellers manage to defend the 100 moving average, then there might be a chance of another move lower in the short term.

EURGBP 08.27.2014

On the upside, initial resistance can be seen around the 100 moving average, followed by the 0.7980 level. Alternatively, if the pair breaks down, there the next level of interest will be around the 61.8% fib level where buyers could reappear.

Overall, selling rallies looks like a good option if the pair continues to trade below the 0.79780 level.

GOLD Poised For More Gains

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GOLD recently traded lower and breached an important support level of $1280. However, the $1270 level acted as a support and held the downside in the short term. The yellow metal prices consolidated for some time around the mentioned support area, and then managed to jump a bit higher to clear a short term resistance area. This break is likely to open the doors for further upside acceleration. There are a few important releases scheduled during the New York session including the CB consumer confidence, which might act as a catalyst for GOLD in the near term.

There was a major bearish trend line on the hourly chart for GOLD, which was breached recently. The yellow metal buyers also managed to clear the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the $1319 high to $1271 low, and now heading towards the 38.2% fib level. There is a chance that it might find sellers around the mentioned fib level. In that situation, it might drop back towards the broken trend line, which could act as a support moving ahead. The hourly RSI is also around the extreme levels, which means GOLD might correct a bit from the current or higher levels.

GOLD 08.26.2014

On the downside, initial support can be seen around the broken trend line at $1282, followed by the 100 hourly moving average. On the upside, initial resistance is around the 38.2% fib level. Any further upside acceleration might take GOLD towards the 50% fib level, which is just around the 200 hourly moving average.

Overall, buying dips might be considered if GOLD continues to trade above the $1280 support area in the short term.

AUDUSD – Selling Rallies Preferred Moving Ahead

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The US dollar outperformed almost all major currencies during this past week and opened higher this week. However, the Australian dollar managed to sustain some ground compared to other major currencies. This resiliency does not mean that there is no chance of the pair trading lower in the short term. There are several resistances around the 0.9300 level, which might continue to act as a hurdle for the Australian dollar buyers.

There was a major bearish trend line on the hourly chart for the AUDUSD pair. Currently, the pair is struggling to break the 100 hourly moving average, which is around the 0.9298 level. The most important thing to note here is that the 100 moving average is also coinciding with the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.9322 high to the 0.9271 low. So, there is a chance that the pair might start trading lower from the current levels. However, if it manages to trade higher, then the next resistance can be seen around the 200 hourly moving average, which is coinciding with the 76.4% fib level. The most important resistance is around the highlighted bearish trend line.

AUDUSD 08.26.2014

On the downside, initial support can be seen around the recent low of 0.9271, followed by the last swing low of 0.9237. Any further downside momentum should see buyers around the 0.9200 support area. The hourly RSI is struggling to break the 50 level, which is a negative sign considering the recent market sentiment.

Overall, selling rallies remains a good option until the pair is trading below the highlighted bearish trend line.

Euro Likely To Find Buyers Against Yen

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The Euro traded a touch higher against the Japanese yen during this past week, but traded lower before going into the weekend. Moreover, it opened with a gap lower against the US dollar, but managed to survive against the yen. However, the pair broke an important support level, and that is a reason why the EURJPY pair might spike lower from the current levels. However, there are several support levels on the way down, which could act as a barrier for the Euro sellers in the short term.

There was a major bullish trend line on the hourly chart for the EURJPY pair, which was broken recently. The pair is currently trading around the 100 hourly simple moving average, which can be taken out easily considering the current market sentiment. However, there is an important support area around the 137.20 level. The 200 hourly moving average is sitting around the mentioned support level. Moreover, the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg higher from the 136.36 low to 137.99 high. So, there is a chance that the Euro buyers might appear around the 137.20-10 area. If it fails to hold, then it might drop all the way towards the 136.75 level.

EURJPY 08.25.2014

On the upside, initial resistance can be seen around the 137.60 level, followed by the recent high of 137.99 level. There is an important economic release scheduled during the London session i.e. the German IFO business climate index will be released, which might impact the Euro in the short term.

Overall, buying dips remain a good option until the pair is trading above the highlighted support area around the 137.20 level.

Buying Dips Favoured In USDCAD

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The Canadian dollar traded a touch higher after the Canadian CPI was released during this last Friday. The Canadian CPI came in at 2.1%, which is down from 2.4%. However, the downside in the USDCAD pair looks limited, and every move lower might present a nice buying opportunity. The pair has opened with a gap higher this week, and there is a chance that it might drop a bit from the current levels to fill the gap and find buyers again. There are tons of support on the way down for the pair, which might hold the downside in the pair in the short term.

There is a critical bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart for the USDCAD pair, which acted as a support time and again for the pair. One most important thing to note here is that the same trend line is now coinciding with the 100 hourly moving average, which increase the importance of the trend line. So, if the pair drops from the current levels to fill the gap, then there is a chance that it might find buyers around the 1.0940 level. The hourly RSI is also above the 50 mark, which is a positive sign. On the upside, initial resistance can be seen around the last swing high of 1.0980, followed by the 1.1000 level.

USDCAD 08.25.2014

If the US dollar buyers fail to defend the highlighted trend line, then a break below might take the pair towards the 200 hourly moving average, which also coincides with the 50% fib level of the last move higher from the 1.0860 low to 1.0986 high.

Overall, buying dips is a good option until the pair is trading above the highlighted trend line.