USDCHF At Risk Of A Break Lower

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The US dollar has started showing signs of exhaustion against the Swiss franc. The recent economic data also failed to impress the market, like the US pending home sales data. It registered a decline of 1%, whereas there was a gain of more than 3% in the previous month. The USDCHF pair is trading around an important support area, which is holding the downside for now, but if it gives way, then more losses are feasible in the short term. There is an important release lined up during the NY session i.e. the CB consumer confidence will be released. Let us see how the US dollar reacts after the data release.

There is an important bullish trend line on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair, which is holding the downside as of now. The 23.6% fib retracement level of the last move from the 0.9392 low to 0.9531 is also sitting around the highlighted trend line. If the pair successfully manages to break the trend line and support area, then it could take the pair towards the next possible support area of 100 hourly moving average. However, the 50% fib retracement level might act as a swing support for the pair in that situation. Any further losses might call for a test of the 200 hourly moving average in the near term.

USDCHF 09.30.2014

On the other hand, there is also a possibility that the USDCHF pair might bounce from the current levels. So, if the pair manages to survive a break, then a run towards the last high is possible again.

Overall, selling with a break below the trend line can be considered moving ahead.

Can Aussie Recover Above 0.8730-40?

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There was no relief for the Australian dollar this week as well, as it started on the negative note due to the tensions in Hong Kong. The AUDUSD pair traded below the 0.8700 support area and currently trying to recover some ground. There is a critical resistance around the 0.8730-40 area, which might act as a catalyst for the pair in the short term. The Australia’s private sector credit data was published during the Asian session, which came in line with the expectations and registered a gain of 0.4%. The Aussie dollar buyers are trying hard to take the currency higher against the US dollar after the release.

There is a bearish trend line on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which is acting as a hurdle for the Aussie buyers. Currently, the trend line resistance is around the 0.8730 level, which is 3-5 pips below the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.8897 high to 0.8681 low. So, if the pair breaks higher and settles above the highlighted resistance zone, then there is a solid chance of a recovery moving ahead. The next resistance can be seen around the 100 moving average, which also coincides with the 50% fib retracement level. The hourly RSI is testing the 50 level and if it is cleared, then a break higher would be on the cards.

AUDUSD 09.30.2014

Alternatively, if the pair fails to settle above the 0.8730-40 resistance area, then a retest of the last low is possible in the near term. In fact, the possibility of a new low would increase in that situation.

Overall, buying with a break above the 0.8740 can be considered if the AUDUSD pair manages to gain momentum.

Euro Likely To Gain Traction Against Yen

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The Euro had no relief against the US dollar, but it managed to gain bids against the Japanese yen. This has less to do with the Euro’s strength and more to do with the Japanese yen weakness. The EURJPY traded higher and broke an important resistance zone to challenge the 100 hourly moving average. The Spanish retail sales data was released earlier during the London session, which exceeded the market’s expectation and registered an increase of 0.4%. This might help the EURJPY pair in the short term.

There was a bearish trend line on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which was breached earlier during the London session. Moreover, the pair also broke the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 140.21 high to 138.36 low. Currently, the pair is struggling to break the 38.2% fib retracement level and 100 moving average, which is at 139.18. There is a chance that the pair might correct lower from the current levels, retest the broken area and then climb higher again. So, on the downside, the 138.80 level might play a pivotal area in the near term where the Euro buyers are likely to appear. A break below the mentioned level might take it towards the 138.40 support area.

EURJPY 09.29.2014

On the upside, a break and close above the 100 moving average could take the pair towards the 200 moving average, which is right around the 61.8% fib level. So, the 139.50 level might act as a swing zone for the pair.

Overall, buying dips around the 138.80 level might be considered as long as 138.40 hold.

British Pound Losses Ground, Eyes Downside

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The British pound traded lower against the US dollar during this past week, as the GBPUSD pair fell below the 1.6300 support area. The market sentiment remained in the favour of the US dollar, and as a result the pair never managed to recover or rise. The pair even broke an important support area, which might now result in a move lower moving ahead. There is no economic release scheduled during the London session in the UK. So, the GBPUSD pair might continue to trade according to the US dollar sentiment. The US dollar sentiment is bullish, so the pair might lose more in the coming sessions.

There was a bullish trend line on the hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair, which was breached earlier during this past week. The pair looks like heading towards the last swing low of 1.6160. If somehow the pair manages to recover ground, then it might find resistance around the broken trend line. Moreover, the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.6413 high to 1.6210 low is sitting around the 1.6287 level. So, the mentioned level might act as a strong resistance in the short term, as it is also coinciding with the broken trend line. The hourly RSI is around the extreme levels, which increases chances of a recovery.

GBPUSD 09.29.2014

There is also a possibility that the GBPUSD pair might not correct higher from the current levels. In that situation, the pair might continue heading lower towards the 1.6160 support area. If the mentioned level does not hold, then the pair might fall closer to the 1.6020 level.

Overall, selling rallies around the broken trend line looks like a good option in the short term.

Euro Might Recover Against Canadian Dollar If Breaks Above 200 MA

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The Euro moved lower against the Canadian dollar yesterday, but later managed to hold ground around the 1.4100 support area. The EURCAD pair looks like forming a short-term bottom for a move higher towards the 1.4240 level. The German Gfk Consumer Climate Index was released earlier today, which fell a bit more than expected. The German Gfk Consumer Climate Index was down from 8.6 to 8.3, which is 0.2 points more than the market expected. However, the Euro somehow managed to survive losses after the release. The EURUSD pair was seen consolidating in a 20 pip range since the start of the London session.

There is a major bullish trend line on the hourly chart of the EURCAD pair, which acted as a support for the pair recently. Moreover, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the last leg from the 1.4013 low to 1.4246 high was also sitting around the mentioned trend line. So, we can say that the bounce came from a very technical level. Currently, the pair is trading around a critical confluence area of 100 and 200 simple moving averages. If the pair succeeds in closing above the stated confluence area, then it would open the doors for a move towards the last high of 1.4240. Any further gains might take the pair towards the 1.4300 level.

EURCAD 09.26.2014

The hourly RSI is above the 50 level, which supports the bullish view as of now. On the other hand, if the pair moves lower from the current levels, then it might find buyers around the highlighted trend line.

Overall, buying dips around the 1.4120 level is a good option as long as the trend line holds.

EURUSD – 1.2800 Is A Swing Zone Moving Ahead

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The Euro was dumped yesterday against the US dollar, as the EURUSD pair traded a few pips below the 1.2700 support area. Currently, the pair is correcting higher, but the upside might be limited considering the fact that there are several levels on the way up which acted as a support earlier and might act as a resistance moving ahead. The German GFK consumer climate index will be released during the London session, which is likely to act as a catalyst for the pair in the short term. The market is not expecting any major change from the last reading, so it would be interesting to see how the outcome shapes and affects the shared currency.

There is a major bearish trend line forming on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which is stirring along with two key moving averages. As of writing, the hourly RSI is right around the 50 mark, and struggling to break it. If it succeeds in closing above, then the pair might head towards the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.2895 high to 1.2697 low. The mentioned fib level also coincides with the 100 hourly moving average. So, the Euro buyers might struggle around the 1.2795-1.2810 levels. Any further gains might take the pair towards the highlighted bearish trend line in the short term.

EURUSD 09.26.2014

On the other hand, if the pair moves lower again from the current levels, then it might head back towards the 1.2700 support area. Any further losses should be limited considering the oversold readings.

Overall, staying on the sidelines could be a wise option as there is a great chance that the pair might correct higher.

NZDUSD Crashed Post Wheeler’s Intervention Remarks

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The New Zealand dollar dived during the Asian session, as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor mentioned that the current levels in the New Zealand dollar are not acceptable. He also mentioned about the intervention. His comments did not go down well with the New Zealand dollar buyers, as the NZDUSD pair fell more than 100 pips within a couple of hours. More importantly, the pair broke a critical support area around the 0.8000 level to trade close to the 0.7950 level. It looks like the pair is going to continue trading lower in the coming sessions.

There were a couple of important trend lines, which were holding the downside in the NZDUSD pair, as can be seen in the chart attached. One can also notice how the trend has taken shape in the past couple of weeks. The pair is simply unstoppable, and recently broke the highlighted trend lines as well, which ignited more losses in the pair. There is a support around the 0.7920-00 area, but if the momentum is such, then it could be also breached easily. The trend is very negative and any rallies close to the broken trend lines might be seen as a selling opportunity. The 23.6% fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 0.8093 high to 0.7945 low is around the 0.7980 level, which could act as a resistance moving ahead.

NZDUSD 09.25.2014

There is even a chance that the pair might not retrace from the current levels. In that situation, the pair could test the 0.7900 handle in the near term.

Overall, selling rallies is a great option as long as the US dollar continues to trade higher.

US Dollar Grinds Higher, More Gains Favored

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The US dollar jumped higher against a basket of currencies, including the Euro, Swiss franc and the Japanese yen. The main reason behind the rise was the US new home sales report, which mentioned that the US new home sales gained by 18%, which was way higher than the market’s expectation. This ignited a sharp upside in the US dollar. The USDJPY pair also blasted higher and traded close to the 109.35 level. It broke an important resistance area, which might turn into a support in the short term. In the near term, more gains are favored in the pair.

There was a bearish trend line on the hourly chart of the USDJPY pair, which was breached yesterday. Moreover, the 100 hourly moving average was also around the same area, so it was a double break. The pair traded as high as 109.33, and currently correcting lower. There is a chance that it might move towards the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 108.25 low to 109.33 high, which now coincides with the 100 MA. So, the 108.80-70 area is a major support in the near term and if the pair moves closer to this, then there is a high probability that the US dollar buyers might appear again. There is a divergence on the one hour chart which could push the pair towards the mentioned support area.

USDJPY 09.25.2014

On the other hand, if the pair bounces from the current or a bit lower levels, then it might face resistance around the 109.35-40 area. This level needs to give up in order for more gains in the near term.

Overall, buying around the 108.80 looks like a good deal as long as the pair is above the 100 MA.

USDCHF Poised For Break Of Recent Range

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The US dollar is range trading for the last couple days especially against the Swiss franc. However, the USDCHF pair is forming a breakout pattern, which we need to monitor carefully in the short to medium term. The US retail sales data was published yesterday, which missed the expectation and registered a decline. There are a couple of releases today as well, including the US durable goods data and the US initial jobless claims figure. There can be some moves in the USDCHF pair, but it will need a major deviation from the expectation for a break to happen.

As can be seen from the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair, there is a triangle formed which acted as a support and resistance on many occasions. The pair recently failed to break the triangle resistance and currently heading lower again. However, there are several support levels on the way down for the pair starting with the 100 hourly moving average. The most important point is that the 200 hourly moving average is sitting right around the triangle support area. So, the chance of a break higher increase compared to a break below the triangle support trend line. The hourly RSI is also above the 50 level, which is a good sign. So, if the pair dips from the current levels, then it is likely to find buyers around the 0.9370 level.

USDCHF 09.24.2014

On the upside, initial hurdle is around the 0.9408 level. If the pair succeeds in breaking the triangle resistance area, then a retest of last high of 0.9433 is possible in the short term.

Overall, buying corrections looks like a good deal as long as the pair is trading above the 200 hourly moving average.

Selling Rallies Preferred In EURGBP

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The Euro was recently crushed against the British pound, as the EURGBP pair traded close to the 0.7800 support area. The pair managed to hold the mentioned area, and corrected higher. However, it remains under bearish pressure unless some signs of reversal emerge on the higher timeframes. There is a an important economic release lined up during the London session in the Euro zone i.e. the German IFO business climate index will be released. The market is not expecting any substantial change from the previous reading, but if we do get one, then there is a chance of swing moves in the Euro moving ahead.

Yesterday, the EURGBP pair failed right around the 100 simple moving average on the hour chart, and currently trading close to a bullish trend line. The mentioned trend line must hold if the Euro buyers have to take the pair higher in the short term. A break and close below the trend line might call for a retest of the last low. In that situation, there is a possibility that the pair might even break the 0.7800 support area and create a new low. The hourly RSI is well below the 50 level, which suggests that the Euro sellers are here to stay and more downsides cannot be denied in the near term.

EURGBP 09.24.2014

Alternatively, if the EURGBP pair manages to bounce from the current levels, then a move close to the 100 moving average is likely. The Euro buyers need to take the pair above the 0.7880 level for more gains in the short term.

Overall, selling rallies should be preferred as long as the pair is trading below the 100 hourly moving average.