Buy Dips In GOLD

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The US dollar traded higher during the early part of the week, but now it seems to be lagging momentum. This caused a minor upside in GOLD and helped the yellow metal buyers to take the prices higher. The recent releases in the US also went in the favour of sellers. We need to see how the US dollar trades in the coming sessions. There is a possibility that the US dollar has made a short term top and if that is the case then GOLD might continue trading higher. The US initial jobless claims and the pending home sales data will be published later during the NY session, which are likely to cause swing moves in GOLD.

There is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of GOLD, which is likely to act as a buy zone for buyers. The most important point to note is that GOLD is now trading above the 100 and 200 hour moving averages, which is a bullish sign in the short term. Moreover, the mentioned MA’s are above the highlighted trend line. So, if GOLD moves lower from the current levels, then it might support around the $1190 level. Moreover, the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the $1178 low to $1210 high might also come into play around the $1194 level.

GOLD 12.31.2014

On the upside, the $1210 level is a major hurdle for GOLD buyers and it won’t be easy for them to take it above the mentioned level. A break above might call for a move towards $1230.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in GOLD as long as it is above the 100 MA.

Euro Likely To Struggle Against British Pound

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The Euro was seen trading lower against the British pound, as the latter one was resilient against the US dollar but the first one was not. However, the recent economic releases in both the Euro zone and the UK were not on the positive side, but the bearish pressure was more on the Euro compared to the British pound. As a result, the EURGBP pair traded lower and broke an important support area to test the 0.7810-00 support area. It is likely that the pair might continue to struggle in the near term as the broken support area might well act as a resistance now.

There was a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURGBP pair, which was broken recently by the Euro sellers. The pair is currently trading around the 0.7800-10 support area. Let us see whether the pair can retest the broken support area or not in the near term. If it does, then the Euro sellers are likely to appear one more time to protect any major upside in the EURGBP pair. The 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.7851 high to 0.7808 low is also around the broken trend line. So, there is a major hurdle for the Euro buyers around the 0.7820 level.

EURGBP 12.31.2014

On the downside, it looks like a test of the 0.7800 support area is likely. If the Euro buyers fail to defend the same, then the pair might trade towards the 0.7760 swing support area moving ahead.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in EURGBP as long as the pair is below the 0.7830 level.

USDCHF Remains A Buy Until I Trades Below 0.9840

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The US dollar continued to gain bids against the Swiss franc and it is most likely to continue heading higher. Recently, a lot of pressure was noticed on the Euro, which in turn ignited upside in the USDCHF pair. Let us see how the pair trades as there is a possibility of more upside in the near term. The CB consumer confidence is a major releases lined up today in the US, which might cause swing moves in the USDCHF pair. Today, the USDCHF blasted above the 0.9900 handle as the pressure mounted on the US dollar sellers.

There is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair, and as long as the highlighted trend line holds more upside is likely moving ahead. There is a key point to note from the chart that the same bullish trend line is aligned perfectly with the 100 hour moving average. The 0.9900-20 represents a major resistance and that is the reason why there is a possibility that the pair might correct lower in the near term. However, in that situation, the pair is likely to find buyers around the 100 hour MA. Only a break and close below the mentioned MA might call for more losses may be towards the 200 hour MA.

USDCHF 12.29.2014

On the upside, the 0.9920 is an immediate resistance, which if breached might open the doors for more upside moving ahead. A break above the same could take the USDCHF pair towards 0.9950.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in USDCHF as long as the pair is below the 100 MA.

AUDUSD Testing A Critical Support Area

Aussie 13

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The Australian dollar managed to climb higher during the start of the week and then later failed to capitalize on the gains against the US dollar. The AUDUSD pair is testing an important support area as of writing, which might act as a catalyst for the pair in the near term. There was no release in the Asian session today, which kind of helped the US dollar to gain a few bids. It was seen surging higher against almost all major currencies. There are no major high risk events lined up during the London session. So, it would be interesting to see how the AUDUSD pair trades during the coming sessions as more downsides are likely moving ahead.

There is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which is acting as a support for the pair as this analysis was written. The most important thing to note from the charts is that the pair is stuck between two key moving averages i.e. 100 and 200 hour MA’s. On the upside, the 200 hour MA is acting as a resistance for the pair and on the downside, 100 hour MA is acting as a support. However, there is a critical point to note, which is the fact that the highlighted trend line is also coinciding with the 100 hour MA. So, there is a monster support formed around the 0.8120 level.

AUDUSD 12.29.2014

So, if at all the Aussie dollar sellers manage to break the mentioned support area, then a sharp downside is likely moving ahead.

Overall, one might consider selling with a break below the highlighted trend line as long as the pair is below the 200 MA.

EURJPY At Clear Risk Of More Declines

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The Euro continued to struggle against a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen. The EURJPY failed on more than one occasion to break the 147.00-10 resistance area resulting in a move lower. The pair is currently testing an important support area and if the Euro sellers clear it, then more sustained losses are feasible in the near term. There were a few releases lined up today in the Euro zone, but it looks like they are rescheduled now. So, the probability of a larger move in the Euro pairs is less and most likely there will be ranging moves in the FX market.

There is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which might play an important role in the near term. We need to see how the pair trades in the coming sessions as it is currently testing the highlighted trend line. Recently, the pair climbed higher towards the 76.4% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 147.13 high to 146.45 low, but failed to break it. It is now trading below the 100 hour simple moving average. So, there are a lot of bearish signs on the hourly chart, which suggest that the pair might break the trend line and continue trading lower. The most important support below the trend line is around the 200 hour moving average.

EURJPY 12.28.2014

Alternatively, if the EURJPY pair moves higher from the current levels, then it might find resistance around the 100 hour MA.

Overall, one might consider selling with a break below the highlighted trend line as long as the pair is below the 100 MA.

GBPUSD Needs To Clear 100 MA For More Gains

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The British pound is finally showing some signs of life against the US dollar. It looks like breaking an important resistance area and if it manages to settle above the 100 hour moving average, then the GBPUSD pair might surge higher in the short term. The 1.5560-80 area is a major resistance zone for the pair and if buyers clear it successfully, then it would be a bullish sign. There is no economic release lined up in the London today, which means most action might be dependent on how the US dollar trades during the coming sessions.

There was a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair, which looks like breached by the British pound buyers. However, the pair is currently struggling around an important resistance area, which is around the 100 hour moving average. The 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.5564 high to 1.5484 low is also around the same MA. So, the 1.5575-80 area represents a major hurdle for buyers in the short term. If they manage to break it, then the pair might head towards the 200 hour moving average, which is sitting around the 76.4% fib retracement level. One bullish sign to note is the fact that the hourly RSI is now above the 50 level.

GBPUSD 12.28.2014

On the downside, if the pair moves lower from the current levels, then the broken trend line might act as a support for the pair.

Overall, one might consider buying dips as long as the pair is above the 1.5540-20 support area.

GBPCHF – Might Surge When Liquidity Returns

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The British pound continued to struggle against the US dollar, but managed to gain bids against the Swiss franc. However, there are a few important bearish signs developing on the hourly chart of the GBPCHF pair, which might take it lower in the near term. There is one more aspect, as there is a critical support formed around the 1.5280 level, which is a barrier for sellers. We need to see how the pair trades in the coming days and when liquidity returns. The Swiss might continue to remain under pressure due to the SNB action.

There is an expanding triangle formed on the hourly chart of the GBPCHF pair, which recently acted as a support for the pair. The triangle support also coincided with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the last leg from the 1.5020 low to 1.5398 high. However, there is a bearish sign as well, because the pair is now trading below the 100 hour moving average. Furthermore, the hourly RSI has also moved below the 50 mark, which might encourage sellers in the near term. There is a chance of a spike lower in the near term, which might find support around the triangle.

GBPCHF 12.26.2014

Overall, more gains are likely in the short term. A break above the triangle might call for the British pound buyers to take control. A close above the 1.5400 could take the pair towards the 1.5440-60 resistance area.

Overall, one might consider buying dips as long as the pair is above the trainable support area.

EURUSD trying To Break Key Level In Holidays

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The Euro struggled during this week and fell lower below the 1.2200 support area against the US dollar. However, it looks like the market is taking advantage of low liquidity due to holidays and trying to take the EURUSD pair higher. This is very tough considering the recent FX market sentiment. We need to see how the pair trades during the coming week. There is no economic release today due to the Boxing Day holiday. Let’s see whether the pair can continue trading higher in the near term or not.

There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which was just breached earlier but failed to successfully close above the same. We need to keep an eye on the mentioned trend line as the pair is making an attempt to clear it one more time. The pair also failed around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.2352 high to 1.2165 low. There is one important bullish sign developing on the hourly chart as the RSI is trying to close above the 50 level. If it happens then the EURUSD pair might head towards the 100 hour moving average.

EURUSD 12.26.2014

If the Euro buyers fail to take the pair higher in the near term, and EURUSD moves lower, then it might head back towards the last low. The 1.2160-50 must hold for today and can be tested on the coming Monday.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies as long as the price is below the 100 hour MA.

Merry Christmas! Pairs To Keep An Eye In Low Liquidity

Merry Christmas

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Merry Christmas guys. We wish you a wonderful new year. Today is holiday and markets are closed. Not much of action is anticipated and most traders will remain inactive during holidays.
However, there are still a few things if someone is trading can keep an eye on!

Merry Christmas

EURUSD – 1.2220 is an important resistance and a break above might take it 20-30 pips higher in the near term. On the downside, the 1.2160 support area is likely to hold during this week.

GBPUSD – 1.5550-60 is pivot zone, as if the pair managed to settle above the same, then more gains are possible.

AUDUSD – Downside pressure remains and more losses cannot be denied moving ahead.

Overall, there is a chance of the US dollar correcting lower, but it might be well supported on the dips in the near term.

GOLD Likely To Range Trade In Low Volatility

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The US dollar surged higher intraday against most currencies, including the British pound, Euro and the Aussie dollar. The main reason for the gain was solid economic releases in the US, which lifted the US dollar across the board. GOLD also declined and traded lower towards the $1170 level where buyers managed to protect the downside. However, we cannot deny the fact that GOLD remains under bearish pressure and more downside is likely in the short term. There is a possibility that the prices might move and correct higher in the near term, but it can only be considered as a selling opportunity.

There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of GOLD, which stalled upside whenever bulls attempted to take it higher. Recently, GOLD failed around the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the $1203 high to $1170 low, and traded lower. However, it managed to hold the last low in that situation and currently heading back towards the mentioned fib level. There is a monster resistance around the 61.8% fib level, as the 100 hour moving average is also sitting around the same level. Moreover, the highlighted trend line is the next major hurdle above the 100 hour MA.

GOLD 12.24.2014

If GOLD climbs higher from the current levels, then it might struggle to break the stated resistances. On the downside, the last low of $1170 is major support and a break below would be a bearish call in the short term.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies as long as the price is below the 100 hour MA.