USDCHF Remains A Buy Until Sellers Appear

US dollar 2

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The US dollar again gained back traction and traded higher against most major currencies. The USDCHF pair was one of the best performers. There was one more reason for the rise in USDCHF, as the Swiss franc also traded lower. The pair traded above a critical resistance area and looks set for more gains in the near term. Today during the NY session, there is a major release in the US, as the Consumer Confidence will be released by the Conference Board. The forecast is slated for a decline from 96.4 to 96.0 in March 2015. If the outcome fulfils the expectation, then more gains are likely in USDCHF.

There is a monster bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair, which provided support to the pair many times and likely to do so moving ahead. Recently, the pair managed to close above the 200 hourly simple moving average, which is a strong bullish sign. Currently, the pair is struggling to clear the 0.9700 resistance area, which presents a chance of it moving back lower. Immediate support is around the highlighted trend line, followed by the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.9550 low to 0.9704 high. Only a break below the same might call for more losses in the near term.

USDCHF 03.31.2015

If the USDCHF pair moves higher from the current levels, then a break and settle above the 0.9700 level could take it towards the 0.9740 level in the short term.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in the USDCHF pair as long as it stays above the highlighted trend line.

Sell Rallies In AUDUSD

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The US dollar surged higher against most major currencies recently, including the Aussie dollar. The main reason for that was the economic releases in the US, which were on the positive side. The AUDUSD pair traded lower and even challenged the 0.7640 support area. Earlier during the Asian session, the Australian HIA New Home Sales representing the number of new home sales in Australia was released by the Housing Industry Association. The outcome was on the lower side, as it gained by 1.1% in February 2015, compared to the last increase of 1.8%. This also pushed the AUDUSD pair lower.

There are a couple of bearish trend lines formed on the hourly chart of the AUDUSD pair, which are acting as a hurdle for the Aussie dollar buyers. The pair is currently trading around the first trend line and struggling to settle above it. If it clears the same, then there is a chance of the pair testing the second major bearish trend line. The 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7808 high to 0.7633 low is just below the trend line. So, there is a major resistance forming around the 0.7680 level where the Aussie dollar sellers could appear and protect the upside. Any further gains look impossible as of now, as the US dollar is still on the top and might continue to trade higher in the near term.

AUDUSD 03.31.2015

On the downside, the last low around 0.7640 remains the key for AUDUSD, as a break below the same might call for more losses.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the AUDUSD pair as long as it stays below the major bearish trend line.

EURJPY Looks Set For A Test of 129.00

Euro

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The Euro was seen trading lower against the Japanese yen, as buyers struggled to take the shared currency higher. There are several hurdles on the way up for the EURJPY pair, which prevented upside in the pair every time it traded higher. Today, the Japanese Industrial Production, which measures the outputs of the Japanese factories and mines was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The report pointed out weakness, as the Japanese industrial production registered a decrease of 3.4% in February 2014, compared to the preceding month in which there was an increase of 3.7%. The yen was seen losing some ground after the release.

There is a monster bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURJPY pair, which stalled the upside every time the pair moved higher. The pair recently failed around the 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 131.42 high to 129.01 low. Moreover, the pair also failed around the 200 hour simple moving average, which acted as a barrier for the pair. The hourly RSI is also below the 50 level, which means the Euro sellers are here to stay and might cause more losses in the short term. There is a chance that the pair might make one more attempt to break the trend line, and it would be interesting to see whether it can do it or not.

EURJPY 03.30.2015

On the downside, the most important support is around the last low of 129.00 where buyers might appear.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the EURJPY pair as long as it stays below the highlighted trend line.

GBPUSD Facing A Monster Resistance

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There British pound managed to recover some ground against the US dollar this past week, but later it failed to maintain the momentum. The economic releases in the US were mixed, which caused a bit of downside momentum. There looks a possibility that the GBPUSD pair might head lower one more time as buyers were seen struggling in the near term. In the UK today, the Mortgage Approvals representing the number of various Mortgage Approvals will be released by the Bank of England. Let us see how the outcome falls in into place, as the market is expecting it to post a reading of 62.000K, up from the last reading.

There is a major bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair, which is protecting the upside in the pair. Every time buyers took the pair higher the trend line stalled the upside. The 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.4993 high to 1.4795 low is also sitting around the same area. Moreover, the 100 hour simple moving average is aligned just below the highlighted trend line. So, the pair might find a lot of sellers at 1.4880-90 area if it trades higher in the near term. A break above the trend line and resistance area might ignite a bullish pressure on the pair, and could take it towards the 1.4920 levels.

GBPUSD 03.30.2015

On the downside, the most important support is around the 200 hour SMA where buyers might take a stand.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the GBPUSD pair as long as it stays below the highlighted trend line.

GBPJPY Might Weaken Further

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There British pound traded lower recently against the Japanese yen, but later managed to gain bids and currently making an attempt to correct higher. It is mainly due to the Japanese yen losing the ground. There were some releases lined up today during the Asian session in Japan. The most important one was the National Consumer Price Index representing the measure of price movements obtained by comparison of the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. It was released by the Statistics Bureau, which posted a rise of 2.2% in February 2015, compared with February 2014. This was not encouraging, as it was lower if we compare to the last increase of 2.4%.

There was a monster bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the GBPJPY pair, which was taken out by buyers earlier today after the Japanese CPI release. However, after the break the pair was seen struggling around the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 178.37 high to 176.47 low. The pair is again moving lower, and there is a chance that it might find support around the broken trend line. There is a lot of bearish pressure no doubt, as the hourly RSI is also below the 50 level suggesting buyers are struggling to hold the ground. A break below the recent low of 176.50 might call for a move towards 176.00-10 levels.

GBPJPY 03.27.2015

On the upside, a break of the 38.2% fib level could easily take the pair towards the 177.60-7 levels.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in the GBPJPY pair as long as it stays above the last low of 176.47.

EURUSD Poised For More Downsides

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There Euro traded lower recently against the US dollar, and lost most of its gains. The EURUSD pair also broke an important support on the hourly chart, which suggests that the pair is likely to continue trading lower. We need to see how the price action develops in the near term and whether the US dollar can perform well moving ahead. There is a crucial release lined up in the US, as the Gross Domestic Product Annualized measuring the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time will be released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, which can cause moves in the US dollar.

There was a crucial bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDJPY pair, which was breached by the Euro sellers. The most important thing to note is that the same trend line is also coinciding with the 100 hour SMA. So, the recent break was very critical and suggests that the pair might continue trading lower. It is currently correcting higher and might test the broken 100 hour MA. Moreover, the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.1050 high to 1.0855 low is also around the same level, which might protect more gains in the EURUSD pair. The hourly RSI is below the 50 level, which is another bearish sign.

EURUSD 03.27.2015

On the downside, a break of the recent low of 1.0855 might ignite sharp losses in EURUSD.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the EURUSD pair as long as it stays below the 100 hour MA.

NZDUSD Remains At Risk of Break Lower

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There were a few Asian currencies, which were seen weakening against the US dollar, including the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar. The NZDUSD pair traded lower and tested the 0.7560-70 support area. There is a major support on the way down for the pair, but it remains under bearish pressure, which means there is a chance that the pair might dive and break the last low to trade towards the 0.7500 handle. Today, the US Initial Jobless Claims will be released by the US Department of Labor. The market is expecting a decline from 291K to 290K. Let us see dollar trade after the release.

There is an important support trend line formed on the hourly chart of the NZDUSD pair, which is protecting downsides in the pair. There is a critical thing to note from the chart i.e. the fact that the pair is now trading below the 100 hour simple moving average, which can be considered as a bearish sign. The pair is currently consolidating, and there is a possibility of it trading a bit higher. An immediate resistance can be seen around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7691 high to 0.7569 low. The 100 hour MA is also around the same area, which means the 0.7600 area is a major barrier for buyers.

NZDUSD 03.26.2015

On the downside, a break below the highlighted trend line could ignite sharp declines in the NZDUSD pair, which might take it towards 0.7500.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the NZDUSD pair as long as it stays below the 100 hour MA.

USDJPY Likely To Trade Lower

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The US dollar continued to trade lower and struggled to gain bids against most major currencies. The USDJPY pair traded lower and every time it managed to correct higher sellers protected the upside. There were some releases lined up today during the Asian session in Japan. Japanese Securities investment representing bonds issued in a domestic market by a foreign entity in the domestic market’s currency plus it highlights the flows from the public sector excluding Bank of Japan was released by Ministry of Finance. It posted a reading of ¥765.5B, compared to the last reading of ¥551.1B. The USDJPY pair was seen trading a bit lower after the release.

There is a major bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the USDJPY pair, which is stalling the upside in the pair. There were around 5 attempts made to break the highlighted trend line, but the US dollar buyers failed to breach it. The pair after failing moved lower, and it looks like it is moving back towards the recent low of 119.22. If it retest the trend line, then it would be interesting to see how sellers react, as the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from 119.97 high is also around the same area. A break above the trend line might negate the bearish view in the short term for USDJPY.

USDJPY 03.26.2015

On the downside, the recent low of 119.20 holds the key. Any further bearish momentum could easily take the pair towards the 119.00 support area.

Overall, one might consider selling rallies in the USDJPY pair as long as it stays below the highlighted trend line.

GOLD Likely To Trade Higher Moving Ahead

GOLD 3

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The US dollar weakness helped GOLD to some extent recently, as it gained and traded above the $1190 level. However, it was seen struggling around the $1195 level where sellers managed to contain the upside. However, there are some support levels on the downside as well, which area likely to act as a catalyst for GOLD in the near term. Later today, the US Durable Goods Orders will be released by the US Census Bureau. The forecast is of a 0.4% rise in February 2015, compared to the last month. If the outcome fails to meet the expectation, then there is a chance of GOLD gaining ground in the near term.

There is a monster bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart of GOLD, which acted as a support earlier and might act as a hurdle moving ahead. Currently, it is trading around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the $1169 low to $11194 high. Moreover, the same trend line is sitting just below the same area. So, buyers might step in and take the prices higher in the near term. Furthermore, the hourly RSI is just around the 50 level, and if it breaks higher, then more gains are possible moving ahead. On the upside, a break above the $1195 level might set GOLD for a test if the $1200 level.

GOLD 03.25.2015

On the downside, the highlighted trend line holds a lot of importance, as a break below the same might ignite losses in the short term.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in GOLD as long as it stays above the stated trend line.

Buy Dips In EURGBP

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The Euro was a better performer recently not only against the US dollar, but also against the British pound. Yesterday, there were some important releases in the Euro zone, which were on the positive side, and helped the Euro to some extent. The EURGBP pair traded higher, but found resistance around the 0.7360-70 levels. It is currently moving lower and might present a chance of buying in the near term. Today, the German business sentiment index, which is closely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany will be released by the CESifo Group. The forecast is of a rise from 106.8 to 107.3.Let us see how the outcome affects the Euro moving ahead.

There was a crucial contracting triangle formed on the hourly chart of the EURGBP pair, which was broken recently by the Euro buyers. As mentioned, the pair is now correcting lower with immediate support around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last move from the 0.7226 low to 0.7370 high. However the most important one is around the 38.2% fib retracement level, which is around the broken triangle. There is a chance that the Euro buyers might appear around 0.7320-10 levels and take it higher one more time. The pair is placed well above the 200 and 100 hourly moving averages, which is a positive sign in the near term.

EURGBP 03.25.2015

If the EURGBP pair moves higher from the current levels, then a retest of the recent high at 0.7370 is likely moving ahead.

Overall, one might consider buying dips in the EURGBP pair as long as it stays above the 38.2% fib level.