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The Euro silently traded back above the 1.2620 resistance area against the US dollar, and it even tested the 1.2690-1.2700 area yesterday. There was a major risk event yesterday i.e. the ECB interest rate decision and press conference. There was no major reaction from the EURUSD pair, and it was broadly seen trading higher. However, the pair stalled right around an important resistance area, and currently moving lower. There are a couple of important releases lined up during the London and New York session, including the US NFP. So, one might witness some major swing moves in the EURUSD pair.
There is a critical ascending channel formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which was the main reason for yesterday’s failure to break higher. Moreover, the same trend line coincided with the 38.2% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.2901 high to 1.2571 low. So, this failure can be considered as crucial. However, there is an important thing which we need to keep an eye on is that the pair has settled above the 100 hourly moving average, which is a bullish sign. It is currently aligning with the channel support trend line. So, there are several support areas on the way down for the pair. If it moves a bit lower from the current levels, then it might find buyers around the 1.2640-50 area.
Alternatively, if the pair fails to hold the support area, then a break and close below the channel could take it towards the last low of 1.2570.
Overall, one might consider buying right around the 100 hourly moving average with a stop below the channel support area.